Logistics Sector – Resilient growth within the new normal
Posted: Dec 26, 2025
- We project that spot container rates will continue to soften, whereas time-charter rates are expected to see a slight uptick, driven by: (1) resilient global trade growth fueled by the “US+1” trend; (2) a deceleration in vessel supply growth due to a thinning delivery pipeline; and (3) heightened chartering demand as the rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope has compromised operational efficiency and introduced systemic volatility.
- In the Seaport sector, we maintain our thesis that deep-water terminals will outperform, buoyed by the vessel upsizing trend and aggressive infrastructure enhancements that bolster competitive moats. This is further supported by the proposal to increase terminal handling service fees. Furthermore, the accelerated development of port and hinterland infrastructure will strengthen the industry’s strategic positioning over the medium to long term.
- Regarding the Postal & Delivery sector, we anticipate robust growth in both revenue and volumes, primarily catalyzed by the e-commerce boom. We expect the e-commerce market to sustain its positive momentum, underpinned by: (1) recovering consumer spending power driving higher GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) on e-platforms; (2) the increasing penetration of established brands; and (3) the rapid proliferation of the “Video Commerce” model.
- Given the steady expansion of global trade and Vietnam’s sustained competitive edge over regional peers, we recommend GMD, HAH, and VTP for our 2026 investment strategy
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