Banking sector – Strategic efforts toward sustaining double-digit growth
Posted: Dec 19, 2025
- MBS Research expects monetary policy to remain flexibly supportive, allowing system-wide credit growth in 2026 to reach around 20%. However, the widening imbalance between credit growth and deposit mobilization is expected to keep deposit rates on an upward trajectory in the period ahead. The sector’s asset quality is generally viewed as stable; the NPL coverage ratio is projected to remain above 80%, although a return to above 100% – as seen in earlier periods – appears unlikely. Net interest margin (NIM) remains a key theme. Sector-wide NIM is expected to be broadly flat or slightly lower in 2026, with partial support coming from medium- and long-term loans reaching the end of preferential periods and repricing onto floating-rate structures. MBS Research expects after-tax profit of the banks under its coverage to grow by approximately 20.5% in 2026.
- Alongside market developments, a series of new Decrees and Circulars issued over the past year – most notably Circular 23/2025/TT-NHNN – are raising regulatory requirements for governance and capital adequacy. Banks are required to reinforce capital buffers, strengthen risk management standards, and meet stricter capital safety requirements amid persistently strong credit growth.
- MBS Research upgrades its sector view to ADD, underpinned by earnings growth prospects exceeding 20% alongside reasonable valuation. MBS Research favors CTG, ACB, and BID, supported by (i) continued credit growth tailwinds from the acceleration of public-investment lending; (ii) marked improvements in asset quality over the past three years, which help ease provisioning pressure and provide a buffer for earnings growth; and (iii) growth advantages in non-core banking segments such as gold-related activities, consumer finance, and securities.
Share:
Relevant reports
Don't have an MBS account?
Open an accountStart trading and stay informed with timely updates and valuable reports from MBS.
If you have an MBS account, please register to receive reports from MBS.
Get the latest market updates and corporate insights from MBS.