Vietnam Dynamics 2026 – In the search of true growth stories
Posted: Jan 7, 2026
- We adopt a more cautious scenario compared to current market expectations. As of 25th Dec, 2025, the VN-Index is trading at 15.8x P/E, 16% higher than the 3-year average (13.6x), though still below the 2021 peak of 21.0x. We estimated the VN-Index valuation excluding the impact of VIC, and the result shows the current P/E at 13.5x, with the 2025 average at 12.2x. This indicates that the VN-Index’s upward momentum excluding VIC – will be driven primarily by earnings growth rather than valuation expansion (re-rating). Based on this view, we apply a valuation range of 12.5x–13.0x P/E for 2026. In the first half of 2026, we maintain a positive outlook, forecasting that the VN-Index could move toward 1,860. In the second half of 2026, we lower expectations as the new interest-rate environment gradually affects market liquidity, while capital flows may partially shift toward production and business activities. We forecast the VN-Index to reach 1,670–1,750 by the end of 2026, based on expected earnings growth of 16%–17%.
- Given our cautious view of market conditions in 2026 amid rising interest rates, we prioritize stocks with clear earnings growth, improving ROE, strong financial foundations, and valuations that remain attractive.
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