Steel sector: Steel price recovery as a key growth driver
Posted: Apr 1, 2026
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In 1Q26, domestic construction steel and HRC sales are projected to grow by 12% and 30% YoY, respectively, driven by stronger demand amid accelerating residential construction and public investment. For FY26, construction steel and HRC sales are forecast to increase by 10% and 31% YoY, respectively.
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Steel prices also recovered in 1Q26, with construction steel and HRC prices rising by 4% and 3% from the beginning of the year, respectively. For FY26, we forecast construction steel and HRC prices to increase by 6% and 5% YoY, respectively, while galvanized steel prices are projected to rise by 4% YoY.
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1Q26 earnings are expected to remain mixed, with Hoa Phat Group forecast to deliver 14% YoY net profit growth, while Hoa Sen Group and Nam Kim Steel are projected to report net profit declines of 17% and 38% YoY, respectively, due to weaker margins and exports.
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Given the domestic market is expected to be the key growth driver for the steel industry in 2026, we prefer companies with strong domestic market share and greater leverage to steel price recovery, particularly HPG and HSG.
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