Industry Report

Brent crude is expected to remain on an upward trajectory amid increasingly complex geopolitical tensions. Although global inventories remain relatively elevated, potential supply disruptions in the Middle East could underpin prices, with our base-case scenario projecting average Brent prices of USD 75–85/bbl in 2026.

Sustained elevated oil prices are expected to serve as a key catalyst for O&G equities in the near term. However, a sharp increase beyond USD 90/bbl could have adverse implications for selected downstream and midstream players such as PLX, BSR, and PVT, as excessively high prices may trigger supply disruptions and exert pressure on refining margins and transportation spreads, thereby weighing on earnings performance.