Industry Report

For the consumer–retail segment, 2026 is expected to mark the start of PIT and CIT policy changes, which should meaningfully support household income and consumer demand. In addition, positive momentum in external trade is likely to translate into a recovery in manufacturing, further underpinning income growth. Overall, with a more supportive macro backdrop and income-supportive policies, we expect consumer confidence and spending on daily essentials to strengthen.
In the early stage of the recovery, we prefer market-leading consumer companies that can capture the upturn, supported by (i) attractive valuations and (ii) strong R&D capabilities backed by broad distribution networks.
Tax-related policy changes are expected to create a healthier competitive environment for “genuine” retailers over the medium to long term. In our view, 2026 will extend the “modern market” expansion, building on positive signals seen in 2H2024–2025. We believe consumers are increasingly adopting this format—marketed under the slogan “Easy access – Fair prices – Wide selection”—which offers a similar value proposition to traditional markets in Vietnam.
In line with the broader recovery in the consumer market, we prefer companies that operate “modern market” retail chains and are on a strong expansion trajectory, with expected profit growth of around ~20% in 2026 and currently trading at attractive valuations. In the consumer sector, we favor VNM—the market leader—given (i) an attractive valuation (FY26 P/E of ~13x), (ii) a ~6% dividend yield, and (iii) earnings growth in 2026 that is expected to outpace the past three years. Overall, we select MWG, MSN, and VNM.